An actuarial report released today shows that LTC insurance claims are expected to more than double over the next 16 years! |  |
The new report, "MIlliman's annual U.S. industry LTCI claims projection" was released March 6, 2025, and states:
"The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) reported LTCI incurred claims of approximately $16 billion in 2023. We forecast an increase in LTCI paid claims through about 2041, with a peak of paid claims of $42 billion."
That is a 260% (2.6x) increase in LTC insurance claims!
Looked at another way, about 400,000 people are on LTC claim today - in 16 years that will increase to more than 1-million people on claim. And the number of claims does not return back to today's level for 30 years!
This lines up with what we at LTCCP® have already been projecting simply from looking back at the peak LTC insurance sales years 20 to 30 years ago:
Looked at another way, about 400,000 people are on LTC claim today - in 16 years that will increase to more than 1-million people on claim. And the number of claims does not return back to today's level for 30 years!
This lines up with what we at LTCCP® have already been projecting simply from looking back at the peak LTC insurance sales years 20 to 30 years ago:
- More than 7-million Americans own LTC insurance.
- More than half of those policies - close to 4-million - were written between 1995 and 2005. With 750,000 policies purchased at the sales peak in 2002.
- Because of dramatically low lapse-rates - less than 1% - nearly all of those policies are still in force, and are now hitting their peak claim years 20 to 30 years later.
- Think about it ... a 60-year-old who bought LTC insurance in 2002 is now 82-years-old!
Interestingly, this report only examines the current in-force block of "traditional" LTC insurance and does not count any new sales looking forward nor any of the newer "hybrid" types of policies. So after 2041, while we will see a decline in the number of people on claim and total value of LTCI claims, the decline will likely not be as dramatic as shown in the graph above.
But for the next 16 years, the number of people needing help navigating the often-complex LTC insurance claims process will continue to dramatically increase. And the number of claims will not fall back to today's level until 2054!
If you are a professional care provider, care manager, agent or advisor, are you ready to face this LTC Claims Wave? The Long Term Care Claims Professional - LTCCP® certification training provides the critical education needed to help your clients effectively use their LTC insurance coverage.
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