LTC Insurance Claims Expected to Peak at $44-Billion in 15 years

An updated report from the actuarial consulting company Milliman now projects the LTC insurance "claims wave" will  peak even higher than it estimated a year ago.  From the study:

"The National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) reported LTCI incurred claims of approximately $17 billion in 2024. We forecast an increase in LTCI paid claims through about 2041, with a peak of paid claims of $44 billion."

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​That's a 260% increase in LTC insurance claims in the next 15 years!​
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Claims are also not projected to come back down to today's level for at least 30 years!  The study did not include any new LTC insurance sales, so claims will persist at a higher rate than today for more than than 30 years.

​Milliman also projects the number of people on claim to increase by 50% over the next 15 years.

This lines up with what we at LTCCP® have already been projecting simply from looking back at the peak LTC insurance sales years 20 to 30 years ago:

• More than 7-million Americans own LTC insurance.
  • ​https://www.ahip.org/resources/long-term-care-insurance-coverage-state-to-state-2023
• More than half of those policies - close to 4-million - were written between about 1995 and 2005.  With 750,000 policies purchased at the sales peak in 2002.
• Because of dramatically low lapse-rates - less than 1% of LTCI policyholders voluntarily drop their coverage - nearly ALL of those policies are still in force, and they are now hitting their peak claim years 20 to 30 years later.
• Think about it ... a 60-year-old who bought LTC insurance in 2002 is now 84-years-old!​

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​Are you - is your business - ready for this LTC insurance "claims wave"?!

You can read the full 2026 LTCI claims study from Milliman by clicking this link:
www.milliman.com/en/insight/annual-us-industry-ltci-claims-projection-2026
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